Geopolitics

WORLD
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
14%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 14¢No 86¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
7%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 7¢No 93¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
6%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 6¢No 94¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
61%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 61¢No 39¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
87%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 87¢No 13¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will Mohammad Khatami be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 1¢No 99¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Iran leadership change by December 31?
14%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 14¢No 86¢
$0 Vol
WORLD⏱ 5d
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?
9%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 9¢No 91¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Iran leadership change by December 31?
23%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 23¢No 77¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Iran leadership change by December 31?
23%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 23¢No 77¢
$0 Vol
WORLD⏱ 5d
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
1%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 1¢No 99¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will Seyed Hossein Mousavian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 1¢No 99¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will Mostafa Pourmohammadi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 1¢No 99¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Iran leadership change by December 31?
26%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 26¢No 74¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will Hassan Shariatmadari be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
1%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 1¢No 99¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
7%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 7¢No 93¢
$0 Vol
WORLD⏱ 5d
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
12%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 12¢No 88¢
$0 Vol
WORLD⏱ 5d
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?
96%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 96¢No 4¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?
70%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 70¢No 30¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
7%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 7¢No 93¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
53%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 53¢No 47¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
6%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 6¢No 94¢
$0 Vol
WORLD
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?
62%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 62¢No 38¢
$0 Vol
WORLD⏱ 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30?
1%
Probability
▲0.0% today
Yes 1¢No 99¢
$0 Vol